The world is in a state of unprecedented flux, far exceeding the complexities of the Cold War era. This was the stark message delivered by New York Times journalist David Sanger in his Sydney University talk, “Election Watch 2024: New Cold Wars in a year like no other,” hosted by the US Studies Centre, which I attended tonight.
Sanger, in Australia to promote his book “New Cold Wars: China’s Rise, Russia’s Invasion, and America’s Struggle to Defend the West,” emphasized the plural form of “wars” to underscore the multifaceted nature of today’s geopolitical landscape.
For decades, the West operated under the illusion of inevitable democratic triumph, solidified by the Soviet Union’s collapse. However, the ascendance of China and Russia’s resurgence have shattered this complacency. Sanger argued that this naiveté underpinned Western foreign policy, particularly evident in Trump’s belief in transactional relationships with inherently “good” nations.
The world now navigates a complex trilateral dynamic involving the US, China, and Russia. The Russia-China alliance, a strategic partnership between former rivals, has emboldened authoritarian regimes like North Korea and Iran, destabilizing the global order.
Sanger suggested a covert US strategy to divide Russia and China while acknowledging the challenges. Biden’s emphasis on alliances, including the formation of a Pacific equivalent to NATO, contrasts sharply with Trump’s transactional approach, reminiscent of pre-World War II isolationism.
The Israeli-Palestinian issue also emerged as a point of differentiation between Biden and Harris, with the latter expressing more public criticism. However, Sanger affirmed continued US support for Israel.
The future remains uncertain, with nations like Australia caught between Western political affiliations and economic ties to China. The next few years will be pivotal in shaping the world order. Sanger expressed concern about the potential timeline for AUKUS to effectively counter China’s influence.
It was a highly entertaining and thoughtful discussion, and a good way to spend a Monday night!